Die Fahrradindustrie hat es nicht mehr mit dem gleichen Kanalgewerbemengenproblem zu tun, das 2022 und 2023 aufgetreten ist. In die Jahresmitte 2026 geht es spezifischer: ob Marken, H\u00e4ndler und Importeure disziplinierte Bestellzyklen aufbauen k\u00f6nnen, w\u00e4hrend Nachfrage, Margen und regionale Bedingungen ungleichm\u00e4\u00dfig bleiben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Die Lagerbest\u00e4nde normalisieren sich, aber das H\u00e4ndlervertrauen, das Verbraucherkaufen und die Markenprofitabilit\u00e4t haben sich nicht vollst\u00e4ndig erholt. F\u00fcr E-Bike-Importeure und -H\u00e4ndler ist 2026 weniger ein einfaches Erholungsjahr als ein Marktreset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Die 2023er Bestandsdaten erkl\u00e4ren, wie schlimm das \u00dcberbestandsProblem wurde, aber sie erz\u00e4hlen im Jahr 2026 nicht mehr die vollst\u00e4ndige Geschichte. In PeopleForBikes\u2019 2025 State of the Industry reporting<\/a>, industry leaders suggested that stock-to-sales ratios were finally moving back toward normal, with 2026 expected to be one of the most balanced inventory years since before the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That does not mean the industry has fully recovered. The problem has shifted. Dealers are ordering more conservatively after being burned by overstock, brands are trying to protect margins after years of discounting, and consumers are still riding but making purchase decisions more selectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the U.S., participation is not the weak point. PeopleForBikes\u2019 2024 U.S. Bicycling Participation Study<\/a>, published in 2025, found that 112 million Americans \u2014 35% of people aged three and older \u2014 rode a bike at least once in 2024, the highest participation rate since the study began in 2014. Youth participation also increased from 49% to 56%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Participation is not the same as replacement demand. A person who rides once or twice a month is part of the participation base, but that does not mean they will buy a new bike every year. The problem is the gap between riding and buying. More people may be riding, but many consumers are delaying replacement purchases, extending the use of bikes bought during the pandemic boom, or spending more selectively on repairs, accessories, and e-bike upgrades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This distinction matters for dealers planning inventory and for importers deciding which models to bring into the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spain is useful because it shows a post-pandemic market that is no longer collapsing in unit terms, even though revenue pressure remains. According to AMBE and Cofidis<\/a>, Spain\u2019s bicycle sector generated \u20ac2.177 billion in revenue in 2025, down 5.9% from 2024, while total bicycle unit sales slipped only 0.7% to 1,093,478 units. That combination matters: revenue pressure remains, but the collapse in unit demand has largely moderated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n E-bikes remain structurally important. In Spain, electric bicycles accounted for 21.5% of bicycle units sold and 35.2% of bicycle sales value in 2025. In urban bicycles, electrification was even stronger, with 55.4% of urban bikes sold being electric. This suggests that the market is not simply shrinking; it is shifting toward higher-value, more specialized categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spain\u2019s data also shows why average selling price matters. The average bicycle sold in Spain reached \u20ac1,281.71 in 2025, supported by mid- and high-end models and by e-bikes. This indicates that the market is not only about selling more units; it is about selling the right mix of products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Spanish market shows that stabilization does not necessarily mean volume growth. It can also mean a healthier product mix, higher average selling price, and stronger contribution from e-bikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shimano is not a complete bicycle brand, but its component business is a useful supply-chain indicator because it reflects demand from bicycle manufacturers, distributors, and replacement-part channels. Shimano\u2019s 2025 results<\/a> show why the recovery story remains complicated. The company\u2019s total net sales rose 3.4% year over year to \u00a5466.243 billion, while its bicycle components segment increased 2.7% to \u00a5354.972 billion. However, bicycle components operating income fell 20.9% to \u00a542.841 billion, showing that sales stabilization does not automatically mean margin recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is an important signal for importers: a healthier sales number does not automatically mean healthier dealer economics. If discounts, currency pressure, warranty costs, or slow-moving stock remain high, revenue can recover while profit quality remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Shimano\u2019s regional comments on completed-bicycle retail sales<\/a>, conditions remain uneven. Europe had robust completed-bike retail sales but still carried somewhat high inventory. North America had weak retail sales, although inventories were at appropriate levels. China remained more difficult, with easing road-bike demand, lackluster retail sales, and high inventories. For importers and dealers, this means 2026 should not be treated as a single global recovery cycle. Product selection and regional demand matter more than broad optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For importers, the key issue is not whether e-bikes are still important, but which e-bike categories can be supported profitably. In many import markets, urban and commuter e-bikes, cargo-oriented models, and better-specified mountain e-bikes are easier to position when they come with clear certification, stable spare-parts support, and reliable warranty handling. For more on this, see our guide on how to choose an e-bike supplier<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The bigger risk is choosing a product that cannot be supported after shipment: unclear battery certification, non-standard displays, unstable controller supply, weak warranty communication, or no spare-parts plan. Low-cost, weakly branded imports may still attract price-sensitive buyers, but they create higher risk when after-sales support, battery documentation, or replacement parts are unclear. Learn more about e-bike battery certification requirements<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Spanish data \u2014 where e-bikes accounted for 35.2% of bicycle sales value from only 21.5% of bicycle units sold \u2014 illustrates the margin potential when the right products are matched to the right market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For importers and dealers, the lesson is clear: the cheapest available stock is not always the safest stock. Excess inventory can look attractive on paper, but old model-year bikes, unclear battery certification, weak spare-parts support, or poor after-sales communication can turn discounted inventory into slow-moving risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\nParticipation Is Strong, But Purchases Are More Selective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Spain Shows a More Orderly Post-Pandemic Market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Shimano Shows Why Sales Recovery Does Not Equal Margin Recovery<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
E-Bikes Still Matter, But Category Selection Matters More<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
What Dealers and Importers Should Watch in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n